Quantifying uncertainty about future antimicrobial resistance: Comparing structured expert judgment and statistical forecasting methods
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Quantifying uncertainty in intervention effectiveness with structured expert judgement: an application to obstetric fistula
OBJECTIVE To demonstrate a new application of structured expert judgement to assess the effectiveness of surgery to correct obstetric fistula in a low-income setting. Intervention effectiveness is a major input of evidence-informed priority setting in healthcare, but information on intervention effectiveness is generally lacking. This is particularly problematic in the context of poorly resourc...
متن کاملIntegration of statistical methods and judgment for time series forecasting: principles from empirical research
We consider how judgment and statistical methods should be integrated for time-series forecasting. Our review of published empirical research identified 47 studies, all but four published since 1985. Five procedures were identified: revising judgment; combining forecasts; revising extrapolations; rule-based forecasting; and econometric forecasting. This literature suggests that integration gene...
متن کاملA Statistical Approach to the Development of Progress Plans Utilizing Bayesian Methods and Expert Judgment
The development of progress plans for each identified technical performance parameter (TPP) is a critical element of technical performance measurement. The measured values of TPPs are referred to as technical performance measures (TPMs). These terms are used interchangeably; however, TPMs more directly reflect how technical progress and technical risk are measured and evaluated. Progress plans,...
متن کاملVisualizing uncertainty about the future.
We are all faced with uncertainty about the future, but we can get the measure of some uncertainties in terms of probabilities. Probabilities are notoriously difficult to communicate effectively to lay audiences, and in this review we examine current practice for communicating uncertainties visually, using examples drawn from sport, weather, climate, health, economics, and politics. Despite the...
متن کاملQuantifying Antimicrobial Resistance at Veal Calf Farms
This study was performed to determine a sampling strategy to quantify the prevalence of antimicrobial resistance on veal calf farms, based on the variation in antimicrobial resistance within and between calves on five farms. Faecal samples from 50 healthy calves (10 calves/farm) were collected. From each individual sample and one pooled faecal sample per farm, 90 selected Escherichia coli isola...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: PLOS ONE
سال: 2019
ISSN: 1932-6203
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0219190